Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 424 (S18E64) has
been the only active region of note, producing only a couple of
C-class x-ray flares over the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 424 (S18E64) continues to pose the greatest threat with
only a slight chance for M-class x-ray flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels.
The high-speed stream associated with a significant coronal hole has
been steady at approximately 720 km/s, making the geomagnetic field
susceptible to variations in the interplanetary magnetic field. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
very high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. The coronal hole is
in the process of moving out of geoeffective range, and no recurrent
solar features should impact earth for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 111 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 118/118/116 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 028/037 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 012/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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