Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 436 (N07W60)
continues to decline slowly as it nears the West edge of the solar
disk. New Region 446 (S22E36) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. A
single period of minor storming occurred at 1800 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
three days.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 126 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 012/012-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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