Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W62) was
responsible for numerous C-class flares, including a C5.4/1f at
29/2146 UTC. New Region 471 (S07E63) was numbered today. It
emerged from behind the east limb and produced a C4.9/Sf at 30/2021
UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 464 has the potential for C- and M-class
flares. Region 471 may also produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels. There exists an isolated chance
of unsettled to active conditions from a CME arrival related to an
erupting filament on 28 Sep.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 133 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/125/125 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 004/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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