Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 464 (N05W73)
produced an M1/1f flare at 01/0451Z. Several other minor C-class
flares were observed from this F-type, beta-gamma group as it
approaches the west limb. A long duration C1 flare and filament
eruption were observed in Region 470 (S12E18) at 01/1952Z. Region
471 (S08E53), a moderate size group with some magnetic complexity,
produced considerable surging and plage fluctuations, but no
significant flare activity. New Region 472 (S23W02) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a small chance for an M-class flare from
Regions 464 or 471.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Extended periods of
southward IMF were observed this period, but the potential impact on
the geomagnetic field was offset by the very low solar wind speeds
(260 -300 km/s).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 137 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 135/130/125 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 003/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 010/015-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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