Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 November 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 498 (S04W67) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1351 UTC. A slow rise and fall x-ray flare began at about 11/1523 UTC and reached a maximum of C8 at 11/1615 UTC. This activity appears to have originated from just behind the east limb near the expected location of old active Region 484 (N03, L=355).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with M-class flares possible in Region 498 or at the east limb near old Region 484 (N03, L=355).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. A single K=7 period was observed at Boulder from 11/0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind conditions of high speed (700-800 km/s) and low density (about 2 p/cc) suggest that the expected coronal hole high-speed stream has arrived.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods. The coronal hole related disturbance is expected to persist for the duration of the three-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 096
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  100/115/130
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  015/030
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  030/050
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  025/025-025/030-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%60%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

All times in UTC

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