Viewing archive of Monday, 8 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flare activity occurred
as the disk is dominated by a large coronal hole.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to major storm levels. The
high speed solar wind, emanating from the mid-disk coronal hole,
increased in radial speed around 0600 UTC. The current radial speed
is near 650 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days. High speed solar wind should buffet the magnetosphere through
December 11.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 094 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 007/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 025/035-030/035-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 55% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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