Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 025 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were only two,
low-level B-class flares during the past 24 hours, both from Region
540 (S15W91) which rotated around the west limb today. The remainder
of the solar disk was stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (26-28 January), with only a slight
chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels
during the past 24 hours. An interval of relatively smooth rotation
of the interplanetary magnetic field from zero down to about -12 nT
started at about 24/1800 UTC and ended around 25/0300 UTC. The
magnetic signature was accompanied by enhanced density and declining
temperatures, all of which are suggestive of transient flow. The
geomagnetic field responded with minor storm level conditions
beginning around 0000 UTC and lasting through about 0900 UTC.
Geomagnetic activity has been gradually declining since 0900 UTC
through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated
active periods for the next two days (26-27 January). An increase to
unsettled to active is expected on the third day (28 January) in
response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 102 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 020/033 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/015-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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