Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 January 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jan 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. A couple
very minor B-class x-ray flares became the extent of today's
observed activity. All four active regions have continued to decay.
Regions 540 (S14W81), 542 (N10W61), and 543 (S16W60) are now H-type
alpha spot groups. Region 544 (N08W44) has lost all penumbra and
appears to be a B-type beta spot group. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated low level
C-class flare from Region 544.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A brief period
of minor storming occurred at the middle latitudes between 24/0900
and 1200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible with southward oscillations in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 108 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 021/038 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 015/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 012/012-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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