Viewing archive of Friday, 20 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. There was no
reported flare activity during the period. Region 562 (S11E59) is a
two spot simple beta region. Newly numbered Region 563 (S21E66) is
an alpha group. Region 561 (N02W01) is the only other spotted
region on the solar disk, displaying a single small penumbral spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak recurrent high
speed coronal hole stream may produce isolated active conditions on
22 and 23 February.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 095 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 008/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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