Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 February 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels today. Newly numbered Region 562 (S11E73) and spotless Region 556 (N15W93) produced multiple low level B-class flares today. LASCO imagery depicts faint CME activity which is believed to have been from a source region beyond the solar southeast limb. The remainder of the active regions were quiescent throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions are possible on 22 February due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Feb 096
  Predicted   20 Feb-22 Feb  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        19 Feb 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb  004/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  008/010-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%06%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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