Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 045 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 554 (S09W13), the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk, is a D-type group with a
simple beta configuration. This region remains stable with no
significant changes or activity noted this period. New Region 559
(N07W42) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a small chance for a C-class flare from
Region 554.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind speed
remains elevated following the onset of a high speed coronal hole
stream on 12 February. Solar wind speed averaged 620 km/s this
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes. The coronal hole high speed stream in effect now is
expected to continue through 16 February. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels with isolated active periods are expected on 17
February.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 104 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 016/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 012/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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