Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 554
(S09W28) is in slow decay and has been quiet. Region 559 (N08W56)
produced occasional point brightenings and isolated B-class flare
activity. New Regions 560 (S16E30) and 561 (N02E64) were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Regions 554 and 559.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to minor storm
levels. This disturbance began on 12 February following the onset of
a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds this period
generally ranged from 650 to 700 km/s. The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels with isolated
minor storm periods possible through 16 February. Expect quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods on 17 and 18
February as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 102 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 012/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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