Viewing archive of Monday, 16 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 556 (N15W54) produced a
single C-class flare, a C1/Sf at 16/0258Z. Region 554 (S08W43)
continues its gradual decay phase. The remaining regions are small
and simple, and show very little potential for flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated low C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high speed coronal
hole stream that produced the minor disturbance over the past
several days has declined considerably. Solar wind speed peaked
yesterday near 800 km/s, but gradually decreased to 500 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days. Isolated active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 099 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 013/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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