Viewing archive of Monday, 16 February 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 556 (N15W54) produced a single C-class flare, a C1/Sf at 16/0258Z. Region 554 (S08W43) continues its gradual decay phase. The remaining regions are small and simple, and show very little potential for flare activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for an isolated low C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high speed coronal hole stream that produced the minor disturbance over the past several days has declined considerably. Solar wind speed peaked yesterday near 800 km/s, but gradually decreased to 500 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days. Isolated active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 099
  Predicted   17 Feb-19 Feb  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 121
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  013/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  010/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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