Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. The
largest event of the period was a long duration B4 x-ray flare that
occurred at 17/2006Z. The event appeared to be from a source region
just beyond the southeast solar limb. Surging in the northwest
solar quadrant was observed just prior to this activity. Regions
554 (S08W56) and 561 (N02E39) are currently the only spotted active
regions on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 102 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 003/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 004/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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