Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 March 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 570 (S13W20) produced C1
flares at 12/2341Z and 13/1354Z. The latter was very impulsive and
had associated minor centimetric radio bursts and a 5,300 sfu burst
on 245 MHz. This region continues to slowly decay, but a clear delta
configuration persists within one of the three distinct penumbral
fields in the leader spots. The new bipolar spot group numbered
yesterday as Region 572 (N19W19) continues to develop, but activity
has been limited to occasional point brightenings. No other
significant activity was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Further C-class activity is likely from Region 570.
There is a slight chance for an M-class flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The high speed
coronal hole stream that produced several minor storm periods in
recent days is now subsiding. Solar wind speed decreased to below
500 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 Mev electron
flux at geoshnchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods at
high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 104 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 100/100/110 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 019/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 010/012-008/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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