Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 582
(N14W22) continued to show steady decay while producing the largest
flare of the period, a C1 x-ray event that occurred at 01/1711Z.
The magnetic beta-gamma structures in the lead polarity have become
less organized however, they remain intact. Region 587 (S13E24)
underwent decay in sunspot area during the period. New Region 588
(S12E74) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 582 remains capable of producing a low level
M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled for 2-3 April. Updated LASCO
imagery depicts a full halo CME from the long duration C3 x-ray
flare that occurred at 31/1151Z. A resulting shock passage is
anticipated on 4 April with active to minor storm conditions
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 113 Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 115/110/110 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 005/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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