Viewing archive of Friday, 2 April 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 582 (N14W35) continues to decay and has lost the gamma magnetic structure in the leading portion of the region. Region 587 (S13E11) has been in a steady growth phase in sunspot area and produced a low level B-class flare today. Region 581 (S05W41) and 588 (S12E64) both produced low level B-class flares as well. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 587 has the potential of producing a low level M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 3 April. A shock passage from the long duration C3 flare that occurred on 31 March is expected to arrive on 4 April. Active to minor storm levels are possible with the shock passage. On 5 April active to minor storm levels are also expected due to a recurrent co-rotating interaction region.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Apr 108
  Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        02 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Apr  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  005/007-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm01%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%45%45%
Minor storm05%25%25%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%

All times in UTC

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