Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 April 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. Region 596 (S07W92) has moved beyond the visible limb, but produced some minor B-Class flaring as it departed. A new active region (N05E61) has appeared near the East limb, and produced a minor B-class flare event on 29 Apr at 0926 UTC. It has some plage, but no discernable spots and therefore has not yet been numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to rise to active levels for the 30th of April, due to a possible transient passage associated with a C3.1 x-ray event on 27 April. The geomagnetic field should return to quiet to unsettled levels for the 1st and 2nd of May.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Apr 089
  Predicted   30 Apr-02 May  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        29 Apr 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Apr  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May  015/020-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr to 02 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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