Viewing archive of Tuesday, 6 April 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 588 (S15E14) produced an M2.4/Sf flare at 06/1328 UTC. A full-halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery erupting from the sun shortly after the flare, with an estimated speed of 1050 km/s. The CME was not directed towards Earth, but may provide a glancing blow to the geomagnetic field. No significant development was observed from active regions on the visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 588 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm conditions. After increasing early in the period, the solar wind speed has leveled off at about 575 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electrons hovered at the high threshold for most of the day, and ended the period below the threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active conditions all three days under the continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole in geoeffective position. Minor storm conditions are expected on day two (8 April) due to the potential effects from two recent CMEs. Although neither appeared to be directed toward Earth, the CME associated with the M1.7 flare that occurred on 5 April and the CME associated with today's M2.4 flare should both arrive early on 8 April and may come close enough to Earth's geomagnetic field to cause minor storming.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Apr 101
  Predicted   07 Apr-09 Apr  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        06 Apr 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr  009/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Apr  018/026
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr  015/020-025/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr to 09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%20%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm35%30%35%
Major-severe storm25%35%30%

All times in UTC

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