Viewing archive of Monday, 3 May 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 601 (S10W61) produced several low C-class flares, including a C1.0 at 03/1343 UTC. New Region 604 (S19E52) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 601 may produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days. Isolated active and minor storm conditions are possible on day three (6 May) as the geomagnetic field comes under the influence of a high speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 091
  Predicted   04 May-06 May  100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        03 May 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  010/015-012/015-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%40%
Minor storm20%25%30%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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