Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 April 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Apr 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 591
(S16W25) produced multiple low level B-class flares today. This
reversed polarity region increased its sunspot area and has become a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. A delta structure is
evident in the dominant lead polarity spot. LASCO imagery indicated
that there was CME activity during the period which appears to have
all been backsided. Regions 593 (S20E43) and 594 (N15E69) were both
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 591 has the potential of producing
C-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 095 Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 14 Apr 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 004/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 004/010-005/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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