Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 May 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 May 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels through 12 May. Late on 13 May, the
influence of both a high-speed stream from a coronal hole, and a
glancing blow from a disappearing solar filament are likely to cause
periods of unsettled to active levels. This should continue through
14 May.
III. Event Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 090 Predicted 12 May-14 May 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 11 May 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 005/010-010/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May to 14 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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