Viewing archive of Friday, 23 July 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 652 (N08W10)
produced a C1.0 flare at 23/1609 UTC, which would not be noteworthy
except that a full-halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery at the
same time, as well as a Type II radio sweep with a speed of 710
km/s. Analysis of SXI and EIT imagery indicate that the flare and
CME are probably associated. Region 652 also produced three M-class
flares over the period, the largest an M2.2/Sf at 23/1728 UTC. A
CME with a plane-of-sky speed of 700 km/s associated with this flare
was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 652 maintains its large size
and magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 652 may still produce major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels from
the continued effects of CME transient activity. After maintaining
a mostly southward orientation for over 24 hours, Bz rotated
northward at 1600 UTC. ACE solar wind speed has steadily declined
to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active tomorrow (24 July) as the current
activity subsides. A CME observed on 22 July may produce active and
isolated minor storm conditions on 24 July. Activity should
decrease to unsettled levels on 25 July. CME activity associated
with today's C1 and M2 flares will likely impact Earth's geomagnetic
field on 26 July, with active to minor storm conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 165 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 160/160/150 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 013/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 040/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 020/025-015/015-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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