Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 August 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 656 (S13,L=87) continues to produce M-class flares from the west limb: an M3.0 at 19/0701 UTC and an M2.1 at 1351 UTC. Region 661 (N09W06) is stable in size and magnetic conplexity, maintaining its beta-gamma configuration. A CME was observed on LASCO imagery from the X1.8 flare reported yesterday, although the CME was not directed toward Earth. New Region 663 (N08E75) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Lingering flare activity from Region 656 is still possible for another day. Region 661 is capable of producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, with isolated active conditions possible on 20 August.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
Class M30%20%20%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Aug 121
  Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug  115/110/105
  90 Day Mean        19 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Aug  008/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  008/015-005/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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