Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 October 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 682 (S13E50)
produced a C1.0 at 13/2206Z and a C1.7 at 14/0329Z. Region 682 grew
to 245 millionths in white light, and maintained a beta magnetic
configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 682 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speed at ACE continued a steady increase and ended the period
at 540 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 15 October, from the residual
effects of the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Activity
should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17 October.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 091 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 017/035 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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