Viewing archive of Friday, 15 October 2004

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 682 (S14E37), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced several B-class flares. This region showed little change over the past 24 hours. It currently exhibits minor magnetic complexity with approximately 250 millionths of white light area coverage. No other significant activity or changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 682 has potential for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed began the period near 540 km/s, but gradually declined to 450 km/s by the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible on 18 Oct due to a weak high speed solar wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 089
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  090/085/085
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  012/027
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  008/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  005/010-008/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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