Viewing archive of Friday, 19 November 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity was low. A C4.9 flare was observed at
19/0512 UTC from Region 700, located at N04 on the West limb.
Region 700 was responsible for several lesser C-flares during the
reporting period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
increased from approximately 330 km/s to 400 km/s during the
reporting period. Total magnetic field increased to approximately
18 nT, however, Bz has remained predominantly positive. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with isolated active conditions on
20 and 21 November due to the effects from a geoeffective coronal
hole stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 22 November.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 102 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/012-010/015-004/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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