Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 December 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Dec 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 710 (S06W61) was
responsible for a few B-class flares. A full halo CME observed on
LASCO imagery late on 15 December was determined to be a farside
event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. A new region rotating on the southeast limb may
slightly increase activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
levels late in the period. A gradual increase in solar wind speed
began about 16/0500Z. Speed increased from near 350 km/s to 600
km/s by the end of the day. This is likely the onset of a recurrent
high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with minor storm periods at high
latitudes on 17 and 18 December. Expect quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated active conditions on 19 December as the high speed
coronal hole stream subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Dec 090 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 012/020-008/015-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec to 19 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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