Viewing archive of Monday, 3 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
Solar activity has been low. Region 715 (N04W04)
produced a C3.8/Sf at 0422 UTC. Region 715 has maintained its size
and magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was
observed, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 715 may produce C-class and isolated M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
conditions. Solar wind speed reported yesterday at 800 km/s has
settled to around 650 km/s, still strong enough to produce the
isolated minor storming observed today. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor
storming possible on 4 January from the residual effects of the
coronal hole still in geoeffective position. Activity should
subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 5-6 January.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 094 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 095/090/090 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 020/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 015/020-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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