Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 715 (N05W19)
produced several C-class flares, including a C7.3/Sf at 04/1113 UTC.
Region 715 continues to decay in size and magnetic complexity. No
new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 715 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
at ACE remains elevated at about 700 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ended the period at high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 5 January due to continued high
speed solar wind. As the coronal hole producing this elevated wind
moves out of geoeffective position, geomagnetic conditions should
subside to quiet to unsettled on 6-7 January.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 088 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 014/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 015/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 010/015-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 488AR 13901 90Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1245Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 76The Rotations of AR 13780 and AR 13902 1
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |