Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 January 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jan 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 027 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 727
(S09W02) continues to trend towards a slow and steady decay. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for 28 January. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become
geoeffective on 29 January with minor to major storming possible.
Periods of active to minor storm levels are possible on 30 January
from the continued effects of the anticipated high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jan 087 Predicted 28 Jan-30 Jan 085/090/090 90 Day Mean 27 Jan 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jan 000/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jan 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 004/015-018/030-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jan to 30 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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