Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 736 (N13W92) produced a
C2.6 flare at 23/0934Z as it rotated around the west limb. New
Regions 737 (S07W31) and 738 (S10E10) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at ACE increased
from approximately 365 km/s to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz remained
positive through the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 24 February. On 25 February,
expect quiet to active conditions as a recurrent high speed stream
becomes geoeffective. On 26 February, expect unsettled to active
conditions with minor storm periods possible at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 085 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 008/012-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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