Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 February 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 053 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
735 (S09W85) underwent little noticeable change during the period
and has begun to exit the solar western limb. Region 736 (N13W77)
appears to have had a growth in sunspot area today as it also begins
to exit the visible disk. B-class flare activity was observed from
both of these regions today. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels throughout the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 23 February. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream should become geoeffective
on 24 February. Active conditions are possible on 24 and 25
February due to the coronal hole influences.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 092 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 004/012-008/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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