Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 March 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Mar 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity remains at very low levels. Regions 747 (S07E23) and 748 (N09E59) are both HSX alpha spot groups that were numbered today. Region 745 (N11W80) continues a slow decay and is now spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 1 April. Isolated minor storming conditions are expected late on 2 April due to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and should continue through 3 April.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Mar 077
  Predicted   01 Apr-03 Apr  080/085/085
  90 Day Mean        31 Mar 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Mar  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr  008/010-015/015-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm05%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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