Viewing archive of Friday, 1 April 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 01 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
747 (S09E10) underwent growth this period in sunspot area and
magnetic complexity. Region 748 (N09E46) is a single HSX alpha spot
group. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
A brief period of active conditions were observed at the high
latitudes in conjunction with a sustained southward Bz occurring
between 01/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels throughout the period
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated minor
storm conditions may be possible on 3 and 4 April.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Apr 078 Predicted 02 Apr-04 Apr 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 01 Apr 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Apr 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr 015/015-015/025-020/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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