Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 April 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Apr 26 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 116 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 756 (S06E55) appears to be a magnetically complex beta-delta sunspot group. There were several C-class flares produced from this region during the period, the largest was an impulsive C5 x-ray event that occurred at 26/0441Z. A disappearing filament was observed starting late yesterday and continued into the early part of the interval. This event resulted in a partial halo CME which was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/2306Z. There is a chance this CME may become geoeffective and produce a weak glancing blow as it passes the Earth. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 756.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. The partial halo CME seen today on the southwest limb may result in isolated periods of active conditions on 29 April.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Apr 091
  Predicted   27 Apr-29 Apr  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        26 Apr 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Apr  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  005/008-005/005-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Apr to 29 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%25%
Minor storm05%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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