Viewing archive of Monday, 23 May 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 23 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 766
(N15E49) was limited to minor B-class flare production and underwent
decay in sunspot coverage today. Region 767 (S07E54) underwent
little change during the period. No new regions were numbered
during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period. Isolated active periods may be possible in conjunction
with sustained periods of southward Bz, more likely at higher
latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 083 Predicted 24 May-26 May 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 23 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 004/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 006/008-004/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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