Viewing archive of Monday, 23 May 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 23 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 766 (N15E49) was limited to minor B-class flare production and underwent decay in sunspot coverage today. Region 767 (S07E54) underwent little change during the period. No new regions were numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active periods may be possible in conjunction with sustained periods of southward Bz, more likely at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 083
  Predicted   24 May-26 May  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        23 May 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  010/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  004/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  006/008-004/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

All times in UTC

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