Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 May 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 May 08 1530 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 756 (S07W88) produced an impulsive M1 flare at 07/0813 UTC. Region 758 (S07E10) appears to have simplified somewhat over the past 24 hours and has generated only a few small B and C-class flares. A new region rotating onto the disk near NE11 has produced a few B and C-class flares as well. Sunspots associated with this region have not yet been reported and the region is not yet numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. B and C-class flares are possible in Regions 756 and 758, as well as the new region near N11E90. Another small M-class flare is possible from 756.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A small Sudden Impulse was observed at many ground locations (6 nT at Boulder) at about 07/1844 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active over the next three days (08-10 May) due to the influence of the CME on 06 May and an anticipated coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 100
  Predicted   08 May-10 May  095/090/090
  90 Day Mean        07 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  020/025-020/025-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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