Viewing archive of Friday, 3 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 03 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 154 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 772 (S17E09) produced an M1.3/1b flare at 0411 UTC with associated Type II radio sweep (571 km/s). There was also an M1.0 flare from the NE limb at 1226 UTC. A powerful CME with a speed of over 1500 km/s was observed on LASCO imagery following this flare. A strong post-flare loop system was also visible on the east limb near N15. This flare originated from a region around the limb not yet numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for moderate levels. C-class activity is expected from Region 772. Isolated M-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled through 05 June. A CME from today's M1 flare in Region 772 may create occasional active periods on 05 and 06 June.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jun 095
  Predicted   04 Jun-06 Jun  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        03 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jun  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  010/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jun to 06 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

All times in UTC

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