Viewing archive of Monday, 13 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 14 0030 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity was very low. Regions 775 (N10W46) and
776 (S06W34) are both in decay. LASCO imagery showed a CME at
13/1600 UTC. The ejecta was directed to the north west and is not
likely to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm conditions.
Periods of major storming levels were observed at 12/2100 - 2400 UTC
and again at 13/0300 - 0600 UTC. Heightened activity was due to a
prolonged southward Bz in response to CME activity from 08 June. By
the end of the period conditions had quieted down to unsettled
levels and the Bz component of the Magnetic field did not vary
beyond +/- 5 Nt. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 14 June. The arrival of a CME
associated with C-class X-ray activity early on 12 June is expected
early on 15 June causing unsettled to active conditions with periods
of minor storming possible. Activity is expected to settle down to
quiet to active levels on 16 June.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 092 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 023/035 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 010/012-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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