Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 775 (N09W59) produced two C-class flares, a C4.2/1f at 0730 UTC and a C7.4/Sf at 1548 UTC. LASCO imagery showed an asymmetric full halo CME associated with the C4.2 flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. There is a slight chance of an M-class flare from Region 775 or 776 (S06W48).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A minor transient from the CME seen on 12 June was observed by ACE at 1750 UTC, followed by an increase in solar wind speed from 450 km/s to 550 km/s. However, Bz remained stable at +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions may be expected on 15 June due to the effects of today's shock passage. Isolated minor to major storming is possible on 16 and 17 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and the effects of today's full halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
Class M20%20%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jun 094
  Predicted   15 Jun-17 Jun  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        14 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun  017/033
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jun  005/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun  010/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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