Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 June 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 14 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity was low. Region 775 (N09W59) produced
two C-class flares, a C4.2/1f at 0730 UTC and a C7.4/Sf at 1548 UTC.
LASCO imagery showed an asymmetric full halo CME associated with
the C4.2 flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance of an M-class flare from Region 775 or 776
(S06W48).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A minor
transient from the CME seen on 12 June was observed by ACE at 1750
UTC, followed by an increase in solar wind speed from 450 km/s to
550 km/s. However, Bz remained stable at +/- 5 nT. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
may be expected on 15 June due to the effects of today's shock
passage. Isolated minor to major storming is possible on 16 and 17
June due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and the
effects of today's full halo CME.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 094 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 017/033 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 010/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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