Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 22 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 780 (S08W01) produced a C1.8/Sf flare at 1633 UTC. Region 779 (S19W82) is in decay and is rotating around the west limb quietly.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Regions 779 and 780 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 23 June. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 24 and 25 June, with a chance for isolated minor storming as a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 080
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  005/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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