Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 June 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jun 23 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 780 (S08W14) underwent continued decay in sunspot area and activity was limited to a single B-class flare. The remainder of the disk and limb were quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. The storming conditions are believed to be due to a Co-rotating Interaction Region, preceding the onset of a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm conditions may be possible during the period due to the recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M05%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jun 078
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  080/085/085
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  030/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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