Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 15 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 822 (S08E41) produced two M-class flares, an M1.0 at 2200Z and an M1.4 at 1751Z, along with numerous C- and B-class flares. Region 822 continued to grow, albeit at a slower pace. The region has retained its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. The remainder of the disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled for 16 November, with a chance for isolated active periods. The elevated levels are expected due to a sector boundary crossing and a favorably positioned coronal hole. Unsettled levels are expected for 17-18 November.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 100
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  105/105/105
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

All times in UTC

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