Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 November 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Nov 16 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2005 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 822 (S08E28) produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours, a C2.3 at 15/2110Z and a C5.9 at 16/1213Z. The region developed more spots in the interior, but remains a beta-gamma spot group. A small filament, centered at N12W10, erupted at 16/1436Z and appears to be associated with a slow CME first observed in LASCO imagery at 16/1630Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 094
  Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  010/008-007/005-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

All times in UTC

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