Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 27 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Most spotted
regions showed some decay during the period with no significant
solar activity reported. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed trans-equatorial coronal hole stream became
geoeffective late in the period. The solar wind speed increased
from near 300 km/sec in the early part of the period to greater than
600 km/sec at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels with isolated minor
storming periods possible, due to coronal hole effects. A return to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 30 December as the high
speed stream wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 092 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 015/020-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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