Viewing archive of Monday, 23 January 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 23 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region 848 (S19W28) produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period. The magnetic delta spot seen yesterday has decayed and the sunspot group is now classified a beta-gamma. Region 850 (N06W05) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 848 remains capable of producing an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An isolated period of minor storming occurred at the Boulder magnetometer between 23/0900 and 1200Z. The elevated conditions are due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. The solar wind speeds increased from near 400 km/sec to over 600 km/sec, between 23/0600 and 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 24 and 25 January due to the coronal hole high speed stream. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on 25 January as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jan 092
  Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        23 Jan 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  012/015-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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