Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 January 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 24 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 848 (S19W41) produced multiple B and C-class flares today, the largest was a C3 x-ray flare occurring at 24/2217Z. This regions sunspot area increased during the period and magnetic analysis continues to show weak gamma characteristics. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 848 remains capable of producing C-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The elevated conditions are due to a favorably positioned high speed coronal hole stream, which has been waning over the later part of the period. Wind speed was nearing 400 km/sec at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 093
  Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  013/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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