Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 March 2006

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Mar 08 0005 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 856 (S08W38) produced a long-duration B2 flare at 07/1614Z. A six degree disappearing filament, centered at N02E24, was reported between 06/1000Z and 06/2255Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active conditions occurred from 07/0000Z to 07/0600Z as a result of a prolonged period of southward IMF Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. On 09-10 March, predominantly unsettled conditions are expected, with possible isolated active periods. This increased activity is due to a high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Mar 074
  Predicted   08 Mar-10 Mar  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        07 Mar 082
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Mar  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar  008/010-010/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar to 10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%25%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

All times in UTC

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