Viewing archive of Monday, 3 April 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Apr 03 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 867 (S16E03) produced
two C1 flares; a C1.8 at 03/1203 UTC and a C1.4 at 03/1625 UTC.
Region 867 continues to increase in area and may be developing a
delta in its trailing spots. Region 865 (S11W21), a beta gamma delta
sunspot group, continues to exhibit growth and development,
particularly in the umbral coverage of the trailing spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class flares are possible from Region 865.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 04 April. On 05 and 06 April,
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected with active periods
possible due to a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 100 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 001/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 003/008-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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